Agrimonde – Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World by Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin

By Sandrine Paillard, Sébastien Treyer, Bruno Dorin

How will the area manage to feed just about nine billion humans in 2050 and nonetheless keep the ecosystems? during this standpoint, INRA and CIRAD introduced the initiative, in 2006, to boost a foresight undertaking for analysing matters touching on the world's foodstuff and agricultural structures at the 2050 timeline. This publication offers a man-made presentation of the most conclusions that this foresight venture has yielded. First, it recapitulates the most statistical references for the interval 1961 to 2003, prior to occurring to explain the Agribiom simulation instrument used to calculate foodstuff biomass source use balances. eventualities at the 2050 timeline are then thought of: Agrimonde move is a trend-based situation that bets on monetary development to feed the area, in a context the place environmental safeguard isn't really a concern; by contrast, the assumption in Agrimonde 1 is to feed the area whereas keeping its ecosystems.

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G. Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia) whereas they are probably net importers of substantial quantities of food; under-estimation of certain uses (including waste); overestimation of production or exports; incorrect assumptions in our treatment of the section “Food manufacture”; etc. ). Even though compilation and processing of these data within Agribiom need to be continued, our simulation tool makes it possible to investigate the question of competition/complementarity between food and nonfood biomass through: • land use, with varying surfaces of forests, pastures and “non-food cultivated areas” (nfca), • non-food uses of food products (vana), • models of animal production using, among other things, quantities of food products used as feed (see feed and models below).

26 2 Agribiom: A Tool for Scenario-Building and Hybrid Modelling  23 These annual country accounts are in tonnes.  241), these tonnages have been converted into total calories and into calories derived from macronutrients (carbohydrates, proteins, lipids), based on FAO references (2003), sometimes USDA references (2006), and on the equation Kcaltotal = (4 × gcarbohydrates) + (4 × gproteins) + (9 × glipids). g. g. g. g. 18 % for soybean oil). Once these conversions into calories had been performed, the lines were aggregated into compartments, as shown in Appendix 1, with few specific cases subject to questionable allocation31.

Div. xls” file. csv” file. csv” file. 1 Variations in estimates of world human populations (2000 and 2050) Year Source Total countries (million inhabitants) Dif. 3 FAOSTAT—Estimates 2006 Rev. 7 Rev. 3 fertility scenario Scenarios: GO Global Orchestration; TG TechnoGarden; AM Adaptating Mosaic; OS Order from Strength 2000 • • • • • • annual crops (called “Arable land”)13, plantations (“Permanent crops”)14, pastures (“Permanent meadows and pastures”)15, forests (“Forests and woodland”)16, other emerged land (“Other land”), lakes, rivers and other immersed land (“Inland water”).

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